Financial impact of a strike on Iran

**ING, a major investment bank has warned the financial community that a preemptive strike, by Israel or anybody else, would have the following consequences:

The financial market impact would be dramatic, even if Iranian retaliation were restrained. Risk assets have risen strongly over the past three years, and a surprise attack on Iran would catch out markets pricing in little volatility. The US dollar, government bond yields, stock markets and industrial raw materials would all fall. Oil and gold prices, could spike, boosting related equities, debt and currencies. Other credit spreads would widen, and the unwinding of carry trades would see funding currencies benefit, although Japan, dependent on Iranian oil, might lag others such as the Swiss franc. A prime casualty might be the Turkish lira, which could fall 10-20%. The duration of these effects would depend on the extent of Iranian retaliation: a constrained response would make them short-lived.